Again, this is a disorganized and fast-moving series of disturbances. The waves all go wayyyyy farther south.This lift allows better snow production, contributes to the banding snows and sets up higher totals for localized areas. As the stronger core of winds up at 30,000 feet blast towards Kansas City, there are areas of the jet stream that tend to provide more lift to the atmosphere. I didn’t write a lot about this potential yesterday, but it’s there. The jet stream above us adds more oomph to things.This reduces the potential to a more 2 to 5-inch thought process of the metro. The dry air is a bigger thing with the stronger winds.If those bands set up farther north, even areas on the north side could see 5 to 7 inches. Hence the 3 to 7-inch range for a forecast. Somehow there are more pronounced bands of heavier snows that train over the same areas from the northeast to the southwest.View the Kansas City traffic and live coverage on FOX4 That’s how you typically get those 6 to 12-inch snowstorms. I keep banging on the drum about this because for us to typically get our bigger snows around here (like what happened back in 2014 or during the infamous winters of 2009-10 and ’10-11), you need to have pivoting snows. Everything will be moving along in the fast flow aloft. We’re dealing with bands of moderate snow embedded in a larger area of lighter snows. We’re not going to see a classic comma-head and a pivoting band of snow stall on the area. Again, we’re not dealing with a significant storm in the atmosphere. Other models are showing this idea, just not to the extreme. The model is grabbing onto strong dry winds eating at the snow potential, and combined with disjointed waves and lift that isn’t the greatest, it’s cutting totals. This morning’s NAM updates are even lower with the potential snows: 2 to 4 inches mainly south of KCI, including the metro. I’ve been expecting most models to adjust down their snow forecasts, and that has been gradually happening over the last 18 hours or so. Will it be a close-down-the-city type snow like what we’ve seen 5-10 years ago? I don’t think so. Will it be messy tomorrow, especially in the AM? Yes. I can see the models attempting to resolve this and it’s the reason why I’m still being conservative with my overall assessment of the event itself. While other areas, often 25 miles away get lessor amounts. It’s what we get after that that is still a bit of a question.īands of snow are notorious for producing localized areas of heavier snows. I’m NOT saying it won’t snow… I think at least 2 to 3 inches is likely for all areas in the metro and south. We’re really not tracking a big storm we’re tracking these small waves that interact with the saturated atmosphere and produce bands of snow. Monday night, I was very conservative with my snow amounts because in my experience in Kansas City all these years, big snows rarely happen in the metro when disturbances are coming in various pieces. There are several ways this won’t turn into a big snowstorm, and I’ve detailed them for you on the air and in the blog. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated. This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated.
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